Learn From Collective Wisdom, But Don’t Follow The Crowd
Lessons from the TV program ‘Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?’
Ever wondered what can you learn from group decision-making in the TV program Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?
I’ve always found it an entertaining program, seeing how it triggers so many emotions in such a short time. From hope to risk aversion to greed. It’s quite an emotional rollercoaster.
There’s a million-dollar lesson hidden in the program, though.
Eliminate group thinking, cultivate collective wisdom
That’s the lesson in a nutshell.
The real mystery is — if group bias is a thing, and if groups distort our thinking, how come the answer of the crowd in Who Wants To Be a Millionaire is most of the time on point?
That’s because there is no group bias in Who Wants to be a Millionaire. They completely got rid of it. Everyone keeps their answers to themselves. There’s no one they can side with or against.
More often than not, the answer of the crowd is more accurate than the friend’s answer on that nerve-wracking 30-second phone call. The ‘ask the audience’ success rate is between 91% and 92%, compared to a 66% success rate for the ‘phone a friend’ lifeline.
Of course, this is just a game. Reality is different.
In real life, people place too much value on what other people think is the right answer.
That’s where it gets problematic. Now group bias kicks in.
The moment you ask people to share their thoughts, they tend to adhere to what they think others will think is right. Oftentimes, that’s the opinion of one or a few people in power.
When money or status is at stake, collective wisdom falls prey to the collective desire to conform.
What would you do?
Imagine yourself in a group with 5 other people. You’ve been told that you’re taking part in a psychological study on visual judgments.
The experimenter informs you that you’ll be comparing the length of lines. You’re seated in the sixth position — you’re the last to respond.
The question for everyone: does X equal A, B, or C?
Despite the obvious answer being B, all other people in the group are instructed to say it’s C. Everyone gives the wrong answer on purpose. But you’re not told about this, of course. They’re testing your critical thinking abilities. Will you give in? Or do you stay true to what you think is true?
This was an actual study carried out by Solomon Asch. The results:
In a group setting, 33% of the individuals got it wrong.
When asked alone, less than 1% got it wrong.
In other words, people will ignore reality and give an incorrect answer to conform to the rest of the group.
Final thoughts
That leaves us with a final question: what weight do you put on other people’s opinions?
Here are two things to keep in mind:
Collective wisdom beats individual wisdom. But individual wisdom beats the collective desire to conform.
The more people you reach out to, the more wisdom you can gather. Yet the more people in the room, the greater the desire to conform.
Real life isn’t one bit like Who Wants to be a Millionaire, so create your own collection of wisdom from wise individuals. If you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.